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Abstract
Modeling the differences in male and female incidence and prevalence of HIV-1 infection in sub Saharan Africa
Nyawani L.1, NUST
Objectives: In sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV-1 prevalence is highest in the world, for every 10 HIV-1 infected male individuals there are 13 infected females. Most models developed to study the dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic, however, do not capture this very important feature-most predict that the number of infected males and females are equal. Extending these models to study intervention strategies may lead to inaccurate conclusions since the basic models results do not mirror the real situation. The aim of this study is to come up with an epidemiological that reflects the fact of this difference.
Methods: We present a simple sex structured model that mainly assumes that some of the infected women, mostly housewives do not take part in the transmission dynamics which results in more secondary infections arising from a single infected woman being higher than that for man. We use ordinary differential and integral equations to construct the model and solve the model both analytically and numerically to estimate the proportion of infected woman who do not pass on the disease.
Results: Our main finding was the fact that the ideae of some women not playing in the transmission dynamics is the reason why there are more infected women that man in sub-SaharanAfrica. We found that the differences in the chances of male to female and female to male infection per partnership are not the causes of the difference.
Conclusions: Our model can be extended to the study of possible intervention strategies like condom use, sex education and circumcision with applications to Sub-Saharan Africa since it captures this important factor of the dynamics that results from the patriarchal model of society in the region.
4th IAS Conference on HIV Pathogenesis, Treatment and Prevention
Abstract no.
CDC042
Suggested Citation
"NyawaniL., et al.
Modeling the differences in male and female incidence and prevalence of HIV-1 infection in sub Saharan Africa.
:
4th IAS Conference on HIV Pathogenesis, Treatment and Prevention:
Abstract no.
CDC042"
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