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Abstract
Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemics in Nigeria using UNAIDS/WHO approach to national HIV estimates
Akpa O.M.1, Oyejola B.A.2, Ibrahim W.M.3, Akintunde E.A.4
Objectives: Modeling is without doubt one of the most excitant aspect in the fight against HIV epidemics in recent times. Both stochastic and deterministic models have been suggested for some African countries and for the Sub-Saharan Africa in general. However, these models neither addressed specifically, the situation in Nigeria nor any country in the West African sub region.
Methods: Previous models were developed when very little surveillance data was available. In this study, we modeled the trajectory of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Nigeria based on the new model called the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP), developed by the UNAIDS Reference group on Estimation, Modeling and Projection. The EPP model is designed to take advantage of the much larger number of sites and years for which surveillance data is not available in many countries.
Results: The results of our model indicate an estimated total of 344,855 new cases of HIV infections in 2004, with the situation Outside Major Town (OMT), accounting for 54% of the cases. By the end of 2006, it is estimated that 3.7m Nigerians adults will be HIV positive with close to 4 hundred thousand AIDS deaths and a cumulative death of 2.5m people. Also, by year 2010, the number of People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in Nigeria will be at least 4 million people with less than 1 hundred thousand new infection. A part from that, about 412,500 Nigerian adults and 95,000 children presently requires Anti Retroviral Therapy (ART). These figure is expected to rise gradually (to over half a million) over the next five years.
Conclusions: Our results does not contradict recent trend in HIV/AIDS epidemic in Nigeria. While this study confirms the suitability of EPP for modeling HIV/AIDS epidemic in Nigeria, an important issue worth noting is the number of people that would need antiretroviral drugs by year 2010.
4th IAS Conference on HIV Pathogenesis, Treatment and Prevention
Abstract no.
MOPEC016
Suggested Citation
"AkpaO.M., et al.
Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemics in Nigeria using UNAIDS/WHO approach to national HIV estimates.
Poster exhibition:
4th IAS Conference on HIV Pathogenesis, Treatment and Prevention:
Abstract no.
MOPEC016"
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